> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.cournot.ai/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.cournot.ai/use-cases/verticals-what-cournot-enables/prediction-markets.md).

# Prediction Markets

Oracle layers: 2.0 + 3.0 + 4.0 | Status: Live

Prediction markets are the ideal first application because every market is effectively a unique oracle query. A traditional oracle can easily answer *"Will BTC be above $100K at 4 PM?"* but markets also ask questions that exercise the full stack:

|           **Market Type**          |  **Oracle Layer**  |                                        **Example**                                       |
| :--------------------------------: | :----------------: | :--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------: |
|   **Structured price conditions**  |   2.0 (Semantic)   |                  "Was BTC's 30-min VWAP above $100K across 3 exchanges?"                 |
| **Unstructured real-world events** | 3.0 (Intelligence) |           "Did the government shut down?" / "Did a regulator approve the ETF?"           |
|   **Open-ended event monitoring**  |    4.0 (Agentic)   | "Will Company X announce a product this quarter?" — requires persistent agent monitoring |

For traditional infrastructure, each of these becomes a custom feed or integration. For Cournot, **the market rule itself becomes the oracle query**.

Cournot is already serving platforms such as [**42 Space**](https://42.space) as an official resolution oracle, resolving markets across crypto, sports, politics, and current events.